“Transformers” Takes a Tumble at the Box Office

Don't look now, but The Last Knight might be the last time we see the Transformers on the big screen for a while. The premier "robots fighting each other" franchise of the last decade has seen diminishing returns – especially since Mark Wahlberg took over as lead – with the latest entry posting by far the smallest debut in the series. Since opening late Tuesday, it's only made an estimated $69 million, which wouldn't match three days of any of the other films, even the underperforming Age of Extinction. Of course, like the Fast and the Furious and Pirates of the Caribbean films, their waining popularity here may be irrelevant, as they are still massively successful overseas. The future of the franchise really will depend on the rest of the world.

For the second spot, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman are essentially deadlocked, with estimates showing they both made about $25.1 million. But given Wonder Woman's massive success, I wouldn't be surprised if it was the true No. 2. Last week, I wrote that Wonder Woman would probably finish as the second biggest DC Universe movie, right behind Batman v Superman. But that's because I keep expecting to drop as if it's a normal summer blockbuster and not the phenomenon it is. It hasn't left the top 3 since it debuted and its biggest drop was only 43 percent. Most big movies like this drop at least 50 percent in their second weekends and keep falling. $350 million is now in play.

47 Meters Down actually moved up a spot, despite earning about one-third less than it did last weekend. The shark thriller has made $24 million so far, and should top 2004's sleeper hit Open Water by the end of next weekend. Pretty good for a movie that was supposed to go straight-to-video. Meanwhile, All Eyez on Me did not dominate the charts like Tupac did in real life. The biopic fell an appalling 78 percent to No. 5.

Outside the top 5:

• This Weekend's Indie Champ: The Big Sick, the real-life rom-com from Silicon Valley's Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon. The biggest hit at Sundance opened with a whopping $87,000 average on five screens. That's by far the biggest per-screen average of 2017 so far.
• Right behind it was Sofia Coppola's The Beguiled, which average $60,136 on four screens. Were it not for The Big Sick, this would have been the biggest indie debut of the year.
• For audiences seeking a break from the big blockbusters, romantic comedy Paris Can Wait has been their escape. The film, which starred Diane Lane and Alec Baldwin, has become the indie hit of the summer, earning more than $4 million, despite never appearing on more than 500 screens.

Next weekend:

Since July 4 is all the way on a Tuesday, the movies get a head-start on the holiday. There's no reason to guess what will be No. 1. Even if it debuts lower than its predecessors, Despicable Me 3 is absolutely going to be the top movie, and I'm betting it will be big. $80 million is a conservative bet. But the second-place finish might be a bit trickier. Conventional wisdom would say The House, starring Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler, would be the best bet for the big R-rated comedy of the summer. But all the others have crashed and burned, leaving me to guess $20 million is about as good as it can do. And of course I'm all jazzed for everyone else to see Baby Driver, but Edgar Wright has never had a mainstream hit. So I'm going to say $18 million for the weekend, but $25 million for its first five days, putting it on its way to becoming the biggest movie of his career.